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Bilje vs Nafta — 2. SNL 2019

Bilje
Bilje
CANC
00:00
Nafta
Nafta
3/21/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 22Stadion V dolinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Bilje32%
×Draw24%
Nafta44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bilje
1.33
Nafta
1.61

Nafta creates 21% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bilje
1.41
Nafta
1.95

allows per match

Bilje
1.28
Nafta
1.25

finishing

Bilje+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bilje ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bilje or draw
56%
Bilje or Nafta
76%
Draw or Nafta
68%

Winning margin

Bilje wins by 2+
14%
Nafta wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bilje 1+ goals
74%
Bilje 2+ goals
38%
Bilje 3+ goals
15%
Nafta 1+ goals
80%
Nafta 2+ goals
48%
Nafta 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bilje (draw refunded)
42%
Nafta (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bilje at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bilje attack 1.41 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nafta attack 1.95 + Bilje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bilje scores more
32%
level
24%
Nafta scores more
44%

Nafta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bilje vs Nafta — Match Preview

Bilje face Nafta on March 21, 2020 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bilje host Nafta at Stadion V dolinci.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.