Biel-Bienne 1–2 SC Kriens: Result & Stats

Biel-Bienne

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

SC Kriens

11/5/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 15Tissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Biel-Bienne45%

×Draw23%

SC Kriens32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biel-BienneExpected goals in this matchSC Kriens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.48

Biel-Bienne

1.81

SC Kriens

1.48

Biel-Bienne creates 22% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

1.86

creates per match

1.70

1.27

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Biel-Bienne

1.86

SC Kriens

1.70

allows per match

Biel-Bienne

1.27

SC Kriens

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

SC Kriens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biel-Bienne ↓

SC Kriens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Biel-Bienne or draw

68%

Biel-Bienne or SC Kriens

77%

Draw or SC Kriens

55%

Winning margin

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+

25%

SC Kriens wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals

84%

Biel-Bienne 2+ goals

54%

Biel-Bienne 3+ goals

27%

SC Kriens 1+ goals

77%

SC Kriens 2+ goals

43%

SC Kriens 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)

59%

SC Kriens (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biel-Bienne at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.27 · 84 matches

SC Kriens away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biel-Bienne attack 1.86 + SC Kriens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

SC Kriens attack 1.70 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Biel-Bienne scores more

45%

level

23%

SC Kriens scores more

32%

Biel-Bienne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff