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BFC Dynamo vs Viktoria Berlin — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
PST
11:30
Viktoria Berlin
Viktoria Berlin
5/3/2020Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 32Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportpark (Berlin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BFC Dynamo45%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Berlin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
1.74
Viktoria Berlin
1.44

BFC Dynamo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.19
Viktoria Berlin
1.50

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.38
Viktoria Berlin
1.29

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Viktoria Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
68%
BFC Dynamo or Viktoria Berlin
77%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin
55%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
24%
Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
82%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
52%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
25%
Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
58%
Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.19 + Viktoria Berlin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.50 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
45%
level
23%
Viktoria Berlin scores more
32%

BFC Dynamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BFC Dynamo host Viktoria Berlin

May 3, 2020: BFC Dynamo take on Viktoria Berlin in Regionalliga - Nordost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BFC Dynamo host Viktoria Berlin at Friedrich-Ludwig-Jahn-Sportpark (Berlin).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.