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BFC Dynamo vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

BFC Dynamo
BFC Dynamo
Preview
12:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
9/27/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 11
50%
BFC Dynamo
model favours
50%23%27%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

BFC Dynamo50%
×Draw23%
Greifswalder FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Dynamo
1.79
Greifswalder FC
1.25

BFC Dynamo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

BFC Dynamo
2.19
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

BFC Dynamo
1.38
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

BFC Dynamo+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Dynamo ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BFC Dynamo or draw
73%
BFC Dynamo or Greifswalder FC
77%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
50%

Winning margin

BFC Dynamo wins by 2+
27%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

BFC Dynamo 1+ goals
83%
BFC Dynamo 2+ goals
53%
BFC Dynamo 3+ goals
26%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
71%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
36%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BFC Dynamo (draw refunded)
65%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Dynamo at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Dynamo attack 2.19 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.79

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + BFC Dynamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BFC Dynamo scores more
50%
level
23%
Greifswalder FC scores more
27%

BFC Dynamo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BFC Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • BFC Dynamo and Greifswalder FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dynamo
WWWDL
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BFC Dynamo face Greifswalder FC (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with BFC Dynamo hosting Greifswalder FC. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.