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BFC Daugavpils vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
11/29/2020VirsligaVirsliga · Round 27Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

BFC Daugavpils45%
×Draw24%
Spartaks Jurmala31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Spartaks Jurmala
1.35

BFC Daugavpils creates 24% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 52 away

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.28
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.42
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw
69%
BFC Daugavpils or Spartaks Jurmala
76%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
55%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
23%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
81%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
50%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
23%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
74%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
39%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
59%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more
45%
level
24%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
31%

BFC Daugavpils at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BFC Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFC Daugavpils vs Spartaks Jurmala

Spartaks Jurmala beat BFC Daugavpils 3-1 in Virsliga on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadions Celtnieks in Daugavpils.