BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Grobiņa: Result & Stats

BFC Daugavpils

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grobiņa

3/16/2024

Virsliga · Round 2Stadionā Esplanāde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

BFC Daugavpils52%

×Draw25%

Grobiņa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BFC DaugavpilsExpected goals in this matchGrobiņa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.98

BFC Daugavpils

1.62

Grobiņa

0.98

BFC Daugavpils creates 65% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 47 away

1.28

creates per match

0.55

1.42

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils

1.28

Grobiņa

0.55

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils

1.42

Grobiņa

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Grobiņa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

Grobiņa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw

77%

BFC Daugavpils or Grobiņa

75%

Draw or Grobiņa

48%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+

28%

Grobiņa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals

80%

BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals

48%

BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals

22%

Grobiņa 1+ goals

62%

Grobiņa 2+ goals

26%

Grobiņa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)

70%

Grobiņa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

Grobiņa away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.96 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + Grobiņa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.62

Grobiņa attack 0.55 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more

52%

level

25%

Grobiņa scores more

23%

BFC Daugavpils at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BFC Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff