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BFC Daugavpils vs FK Ventspils — Virsliga 2019

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
CANC
11:00
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
4/25/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 8Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

BFC Daugavpils38%
×Draw26%
FK Ventspils36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Daugavpils
1.35
FK Ventspils
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 31 away

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.28
FK Ventspils
1.23

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.42
FK Ventspils
1.42

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw
64%
BFC Daugavpils or FK Ventspils
74%
Draw or FK Ventspils
62%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
17%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
74%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
39%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
15%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
73%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
38%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
51%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + FK Ventspils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

FK Ventspils attack 1.23 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more
38%
level
26%
FK Ventspils scores more
36%

BFC Daugavpils at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "BFC Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Ventspils — Match Preview

BFC Daugavpils face FK Ventspils on April 25, 2021 in this Virsliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BFC Daugavpils host FK Ventspils at Stadions Celtnieks.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.