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BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja — Virsliga 2026

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
11/5/2023VirsligaVirsliga · Round 35Stadionā Esplanāde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

BFC Daugavpils36%
×Draw25%
FK Liepaja39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Daugavpils
1.38
FK Liepaja
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 115 away

creates per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.28
FK Liepaja
1.44

allows per match

BFC Daugavpils
1.42
FK Liepaja
1.47

finishing

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par
FK Liepaja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Daugavpils ↓

FK Liepaja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BFC Daugavpils or draw
61%
BFC Daugavpils or FK Liepaja
75%
Draw or FK Liepaja
64%

Winning margin

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
17%
FK Liepaja wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
75%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
40%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
16%
FK Liepaja 1+ goals
76%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
42%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
48%
FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Daugavpils at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

FK Liepaja away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Daugavpils attack 1.28 + FK Liepaja defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

FK Liepaja attack 1.44 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BFC Daugavpils scores more
36%
level
25%
FK Liepaja scores more
39%

FK Liepaja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja

BFC Daugavpils beat FK Liepaja 2-1 in Virsliga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionā Esplanāde in Daugavpils.