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BFA vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
1 – 0
Banga II
Banga II
6/12/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

BFA53%
×Draw22%
Banga II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.90
Banga II
1.23

BFA creates 54% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 43 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Banga II
2.12

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

BFA or draw
75%
BFA or Banga II
78%
Draw or Banga II
47%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
30%
Banga II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
85%
BFA 2+ goals
56%
BFA 3+ goals
29%
Banga II 1+ goals
71%
Banga II 2+ goals
35%
Banga II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
68%
Banga II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Banga II attack 0.95 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

BFA scores more
53%
level
22%
Banga II scores more
25%

BFA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFA vs Banga II

BFA beat Banga II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.