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Bezau vs Höchst — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Bezau
Bezau
FT
2 – 1
Höchst
Höchst
10/9/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Sportplatz Vfb Bezau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bezau44%
×Draw21%
Höchst35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezau
2.09
Höchst
1.85

Bezau creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bezau
2.04
Höchst
1.98

allows per match

Bezau
1.72
Höchst
2.14

finishing

Bezau+0.00on par
Höchst+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezau ↓

Höchst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bezau or draw
65%
Bezau or Höchst
79%
Draw or Höchst
56%

Winning margin

Bezau wins by 2+
25%
Höchst wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bezau 1+ goals
88%
Bezau 2+ goals
62%
Bezau 3+ goals
34%
Höchst 1+ goals
84%
Höchst 2+ goals
55%
Höchst 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bezau (draw refunded)
56%
Höchst (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezau at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.72 · 47 matches

Höchst away — creates 1.98, concedes 2.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezau attack 2.04 + Höchst defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.09

Höchst attack 1.98 + Bezau defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bezau scores more
44%
level
21%
Höchst scores more
35%

Bezau at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bezau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bezau 2 – 1 Höchst

Bezau beat Höchst 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Vfb Bezau in Bezau.