Bezana 2–0 Sámano: Result & Stats

Bezana

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sámano

2/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Bezana44%

×Draw27%

Sámano30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BezanaExpected goals in this matchSámano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.11

Bezana

1.40

Sámano

1.11

Bezana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 91 away

1.35

creates per match

1.09

1.13

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bezana

1.35

Sámano

1.09

allows per match

Bezana

1.13

Sámano

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par

Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Sámano →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bezana or draw

70%

Bezana or Sámano

73%

Draw or Sámano

56%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+

21%

Sámano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals

75%

Bezana 2+ goals

41%

Bezana 3+ goals

17%

Sámano 1+ goals

67%

Sámano 2+ goals

30%

Sámano 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)

59%

Sámano (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sámano attack 1.09 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bezana scores more

44%

level

27%

Sámano scores more

30%

Bezana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff