Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beti Onak vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Onak
Beti Onak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
11/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Beti Onak44%
×Draw25%
Txantrea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Onak
1.55
Txantrea
1.25

Beti Onak creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Beti Onak
1.50
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

Beti Onak
1.22
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw
69%
Beti Onak or Txantrea
75%
Draw or Txantrea
56%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+
22%
Txantrea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals
79%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
46%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
20%
Txantrea 1+ goals
71%
Txantrea 2+ goals
36%
Txantrea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)
59%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beti Onak scores more
44%
level
25%
Txantrea scores more
31%

Beti Onak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Onak vs Txantrea

Beti Onak and Txantrea drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.