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Beti Kozkor vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Beti Kozkor46%
×Draw26%
Txantrea28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Kozkor
1.48
Txantrea
1.10

Beti Kozkor creates 35% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Beti Kozkor
1.35
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

Beti Kozkor
0.92
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw
72%
Beti Kozkor or Txantrea
74%
Draw or Txantrea
54%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
23%
Txantrea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
77%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
43%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
19%
Txantrea 1+ goals
67%
Txantrea 2+ goals
30%
Txantrea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
62%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more
46%
level
26%
Txantrea scores more
28%

Beti Kozkor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Beti Kozkor 0–1 Txantrea

Txantrea beat Beti Kozkor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Plazaola in Lekunberri.