Beti Kozkor 1–0 Corellano: Result & Stats

Beti Kozkor

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corellano

9/7/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Beti Kozkor52%

×Draw25%

Corellano23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti KozkorExpected goals in this matchCorellano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Beti Kozkor

1.58

Corellano

0.96

Beti Kozkor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Beti Kozkor

1.35

Corellano

1.00

allows per match

Beti Kozkor

0.92

Corellano

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Corellano →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw

77%

Beti Kozkor or Corellano

75%

Draw or Corellano

48%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+

27%

Corellano wins by 2+

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals

79%

Beti Kozkor 2+ goals

47%

Beti Kozkor 3+ goals

21%

Corellano 1+ goals

62%

Corellano 2+ goals

25%

Corellano 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)

69%

Corellano (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Corellano attack 1.00 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more

52%

level

25%

Corellano scores more

23%

Beti Kozkor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff