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Beskyd Frenštát vs Polanka nad Odrou — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
11/5/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 8Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát30%
×Draw23%
Polanka nad Odrou47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.38
Polanka nad Odrou
1.79

Polanka nad Odrou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 63 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Polanka nad Odrou
1.78

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Polanka nad Odrou
1.16

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Polanka nad Odrou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
53%
Beskyd Frenštát or Polanka nad Odrou
77%
Draw or Polanka nad Odrou
70%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
13%
Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
75%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
40%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
16%
Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
83%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
53%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
39%
Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Polanka nad Odrou away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
30%
level
23%
Polanka nad Odrou scores more
47%

Polanka nad Odrou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beskyd Frenštát vs Polanka nad Odrou

Polanka nad Odrou beat Beskyd Frenštát 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.