Beskyd Frenštát 3–0 Opava II: Result & Stats

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Opava II

6/1/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát37%

×Draw23%

Opava II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchOpava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.66

Beskyd Frenštát

1.60

Opava II

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 74 away

1.59

creates per match

1.51

1.80

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Opava II

1.51

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Opava II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Opava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

60%

Beskyd Frenštát or Opava II

77%

Draw or Opava II

63%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

18%

Opava II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

80%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

47%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

22%

Opava II 1+ goals

81%

Opava II 2+ goals

49%

Opava II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

48%

Opava II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Opava II attack 1.51 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

37%

level

23%

Opava II scores more

40%

Opava II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff