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Beskyd Frenštát vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
CANC
13:00
Opava II
Opava II
3/7/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát37%
×Draw23%
Opava II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.60
Opava II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 74 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
60%
Beskyd Frenštát or Opava II
77%
Draw or Opava II
63%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
18%
Opava II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
80%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
47%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
22%
Opava II 1+ goals
81%
Opava II 2+ goals
49%
Opava II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
48%
Opava II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Opava II attack 1.51 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
37%
level
23%
Opava II scores more
40%

Opava II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beskyd Frenštát face Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Beskyd Frenštát hosting Opava II. Match starts March 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Beskyd Frenštát host Opava II at Stadion Na Nivách.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.