Besëlidhja Lezhë 2–1 Burreli: Result & Stats

Besëlidhja Lezhë

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burreli

2/16/2020

1st Division · Round 16Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë48%

×Draw26%

Burreli27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besëlidhja LezhëExpected goals in this matchBurreli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.52

Burreli

1.07

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 42% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 100 away

1.60

creates per match

0.86

1.29

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.60

Burreli

0.86

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë

1.29

Burreli

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Burreli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw

73%

Besëlidhja Lezhë or Burreli

74%

Draw or Burreli

52%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+

24%

Burreli wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals

78%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals

45%

Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals

20%

Burreli 1+ goals

66%

Burreli 2+ goals

29%

Burreli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)

64%

Burreli (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Burreli attack 0.86 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more

48%

level

26%

Burreli scores more

27%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff