Besa Kavajë 2–4 Tomori Berat: Result & Stats

Besa Kavajë

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Tomori Berat

5/15/2021

1st Division · Promotion Round - 6Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Besa Kavajë51%

×Draw25%

Tomori Berat24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa KavajëExpected goals in this matchTomori Berat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.02

Besa Kavajë

1.61

Tomori Berat

1.02

Besa Kavajë creates 58% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

1.46

creates per match

1.02

1.01

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Besa Kavajë

1.46

Tomori Berat

1.02

allows per match

Besa Kavajë

1.01

Tomori Berat

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Tomori Berat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw

76%

Besa Kavajë or Tomori Berat

75%

Draw or Tomori Berat

49%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

27%

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

80%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

48%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

22%

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

64%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

27%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

68%

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more

51%

level

25%

Tomori Berat scores more

24%

Besa Kavajë at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff