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Besa Dobërdoll vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pelister
Pelister
2/25/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll49%
×Draw25%
Pelister26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.58
Pelister
1.09

Besa Dobërdoll creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Pelister
1.68

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Pelister
1.00

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
74%
Besa Dobërdoll or Pelister
75%
Draw or Pelister
51%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
25%
Pelister wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
79%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
47%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
21%
Pelister 1+ goals
66%
Pelister 2+ goals
30%
Pelister 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
65%
Pelister (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pelister attack 1.68 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
49%
level
25%
Pelister scores more
26%

Besa Dobërdoll at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Besa Dobërdoll 1–2 Pelister

Pelister beat Besa Dobërdoll 2-1 in Second League on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.