Berwick Rangers 1–0 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Berwick Rangers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

R. Brown 67'

8/4/2018

League Two · Round 1Shielfield Park (Berwick-upon-Tweed, Northumberland)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Berwick Rangers21%

×Draw23%

Stirling Albion57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berwick RangersExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.85

Berwick Rangers

1.02

Stirling Albion

1.85

Stirling Albion creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

0.71

creates per match

1.42

2.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Berwick Rangers

0.71

Stirling Albion

1.42

allows per match

Berwick Rangers

2.29

Stirling Albion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berwick Rangers ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Berwick Rangers or draw

43%

Berwick Rangers or Stirling Albion

77%

Draw or Stirling Albion

79%

Winning margin

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

7%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

64%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

27%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

8%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

84%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

55%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

27%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berwick Rangers at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berwick Rangers attack 0.71 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Stirling Albion attack 1.42 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Berwick Rangers scores more

21%

level

23%

Stirling Albion scores more

57%

Stirling Albion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

67'

70'

77'

80'

R. McLaren← N. McLaughlin

87'

O. Fleming← J. Todd

Berwick

Stirling

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Horn

70'▲A. Murrell←▼D. Healy

77'▲S. Murphy←▼D. Lavery

87'▲O. Fleming←▼J. Todd

Berwick Rangers substitutes

MurrellMurphyFlemingAdamsRoseDavie

Manager: D. MacKay

67'▲J. Watson←▼K. Fell

80'▲R. McLaren←▼N. McLaughlin

Stirling Albion substitutes

WatsonMcLarenBinnieMacDonaldThomsonYoungMcDonald