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Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2018

Beroe
Beroe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
3/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Stadion Beroe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Beroe51%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Sofia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe
1.54
Septemvri Sofia
0.95

Beroe creates 62% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 73 away

creates per match

Beroe
1.22
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Beroe
1.01
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Beroe+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beroe or draw
77%
Beroe or Septemvri Sofia
74%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
49%

Winning margin

Beroe wins by 2+
26%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beroe 1+ goals
79%
Beroe 2+ goals
45%
Beroe 3+ goals
20%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
61%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
25%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Beroe (draw refunded)
69%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe attack 1.22 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Beroe defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beroe scores more
51%
level
26%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
23%

Beroe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beroe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Beroe 1–2 Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia beat Beroe 2-1 in First League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora.