Bergheim W 0–3 Sturm Graz W: Result & Stats

Bergheim W

FT

0 – 3

Sturm Graz W

5/1/2021

Frauenliga · Round 15Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Bergheim W18%

×Draw20%

Sturm Graz W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergheim WExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.10

Bergheim W

1.02

Sturm Graz W

2.10

Sturm Graz W creates 106% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 65 away

0.98

creates per match

2.18

2.02

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bergheim W

0.98

Sturm Graz W

2.18

allows per match

Bergheim W

2.02

Sturm Graz W

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergheim W+0.00on par

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim W ↓

Sturm Graz W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bergheim W or draw

38%

Bergheim W or Sturm Graz W

80%

Draw or Sturm Graz W

82%

Winning margin

Bergheim W wins by 2+

6%

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Bergheim W 1+ goals

64%

Bergheim W 2+ goals

27%

Bergheim W 3+ goals

8%

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

88%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

62%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Bergheim W (draw refunded)

22%

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim W at home — creates 0.98, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

Sturm Graz W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim W attack 0.98 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sturm Graz W attack 2.18 + Bergheim W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bergheim W scores more

18%

level

20%

Sturm Graz W scores more

62%

Sturm Graz W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff