Bergheim W 0–3 First Vienna W: Result & Stats

Bergheim W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

First Vienna W

3/12/2022

Frauenliga · Round 10Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bergheim W25%

×Draw22%

First Vienna W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bergheim WExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.98

Bergheim W

1.31

First Vienna W

1.98

First Vienna W creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 49 away

0.98

creates per match

1.94

2.02

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Bergheim W

0.98

First Vienna W

1.94

allows per match

Bergheim W

2.02

First Vienna W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergheim W+0.00on par

First Vienna W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim W ↓

First Vienna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bergheim W or draw

47%

Bergheim W or First Vienna W

78%

Draw or First Vienna W

75%

Winning margin

Bergheim W wins by 2+

11%

First Vienna W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Bergheim W 1+ goals

73%

Bergheim W 2+ goals

38%

Bergheim W 3+ goals

14%

First Vienna W 1+ goals

86%

First Vienna W 2+ goals

59%

First Vienna W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bergheim W (draw refunded)

32%

First Vienna W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim W at home — creates 0.98, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

First Vienna W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim W attack 0.98 + First Vienna W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

First Vienna W attack 1.94 + Bergheim W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bergheim W scores more

25%

level

22%

First Vienna W scores more

53%

First Vienna W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "First Vienna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff