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Bergheim vs Puch — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bergheim
Bergheim
FT
3 – 1
Puch
Puch
11/9/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bergheim43%
×Draw21%
Puch36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim
2.10
Puch
1.90

Bergheim creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bergheim
1.73
Puch
1.39

allows per match

Bergheim
2.42
Puch
2.48

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par
Puch+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

Puch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw
64%
Bergheim or Puch
79%
Draw or Puch
57%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+
24%
Puch wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals
88%
Bergheim 2+ goals
62%
Bergheim 3+ goals
35%
Puch 1+ goals
85%
Puch 2+ goals
56%
Puch 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)
55%
Puch (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

Puch away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.48 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + Puch defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.10

Puch attack 1.39 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bergheim scores more
43%
level
21%
Puch scores more
36%

Bergheim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bergheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergheim vs Puch

Bergheim beat Puch 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.