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Berceo vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Berceo
Berceo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pradejón
Pradejón
12/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 18Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Berceo44%
×Draw24%
Pradejón32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berceo
1.66
Pradejón
1.39

Berceo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

creates per match

Berceo
1.41
Pradejón
1.17

allows per match

Berceo
1.60
Pradejón
1.91

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par
Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Pradejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Berceo or draw
68%
Berceo or Pradejón
76%
Draw or Pradejón
56%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+
23%
Pradejón wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals
81%
Berceo 2+ goals
49%
Berceo 3+ goals
23%
Pradejón 1+ goals
75%
Pradejón 2+ goals
40%
Pradejón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)
58%
Pradejón (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Berceo scores more
44%
level
24%
Pradejón scores more
32%

Berceo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Berceo vs Pradejón

Berceo beat Pradejón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Isla in Logroño.