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Bentleigh Greens vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
CANC
10:30
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
8/27/2021Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bentleigh Greens32%
×Draw25%
South Melbourne43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.28
South Melbourne
1.54

South Melbourne creates 20% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.42
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.60
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
57%
Bentleigh Greens or South Melbourne
75%
Draw or South Melbourne
68%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
14%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
72%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
37%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
14%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
79%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
45%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
42%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
32%
level
25%
South Melbourne scores more
43%

South Melbourne at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "South Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bentleigh Greens face South Melbourne (Victoria NPL)

Victoria NPL returns with Bentleigh Greens hosting South Melbourne. Match starts August 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bentleigh Greens host South Melbourne at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.