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Bentleigh Greens vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
PST
09:15
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
4/3/2020Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 8Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bentleigh Greens28%
×Draw24%
Oakleigh Cannons48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.27
Oakleigh Cannons
1.73

Oakleigh Cannons creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.42
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.60
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
52%
Bentleigh Greens or Oakleigh Cannons
76%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
72%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
12%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
72%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
36%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
14%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
82%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
52%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
37%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
28%
level
24%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
48%

Oakleigh Cannons at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bentleigh Greens host Oakleigh Cannons

April 3, 2020: Bentleigh Greens take on Oakleigh Cannons in Victoria NPL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bentleigh Greens host Oakleigh Cannons at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.