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Bentleigh Greens vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
3 – 1
Green Gully
Green Gully
3/1/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 3Kingston Heath Soccer Complex (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bentleigh Greens38%
×Draw25%
Green Gully37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.47
Green Gully
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.42
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.60
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
63%
Bentleigh Greens or Green Gully
75%
Draw or Green Gully
62%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
18%
Green Gully wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
77%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
43%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
18%
Green Gully 1+ goals
77%
Green Gully 2+ goals
43%
Green Gully 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
50%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.47

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
38%
level
25%
Green Gully scores more
37%

Bentleigh Greens at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bentleigh Greens vs Green Gully

Bentleigh Greens beat Green Gully 3-1 in Victoria NPL on March 1, 2019.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex (Melbourne).