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Benkovski Isperih vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
FT
2 – 3
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
11/18/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 15Gradski Stadion Isperih

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benkovski Isperih41%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Tervel35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
1.57
Septemvri Tervel
1.42

Benkovski Isperih creates 11% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 104 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
65%
Benkovski Isperih or Septemvri Tervel
76%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
59%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
20%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
79%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
46%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
21%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
76%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
41%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
54%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
41%
level
24%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
35%

Benkovski Isperih at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benkovski Isperih vs Septemvri Tervel

Septemvri Tervel beat Benkovski Isperih 3-2 in Third League - Northeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Isperih in Isperih.