Benigànim 2–3 Elche II: Result & Stats

Benigànim

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Elche II

12/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 17Campo Municipal Emilio Cuquerella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benigànim26%

×Draw27%

Elche II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenigànimExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.41

Benigànim

0.96

Elche II

1.41

Elche II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

0.91

creates per match

1.25

1.57

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Benigànim

0.91

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Benigànim

1.57

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benigànim+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benigànim ↓

Elche II →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Benigànim or draw

53%

Benigànim or Elche II

73%

Draw or Elche II

74%

Winning margin

Benigànim wins by 2+

Elche II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Benigànim 1+ goals

62%

Benigànim 2+ goals

25%

Benigànim 3+ goals

Elche II 1+ goals

76%

Elche II 2+ goals

41%

Elche II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Benigànim (draw refunded)

35%

Elche II (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Benigànim at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Benigànim attack 0.91 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Elche II attack 1.25 + Benigànim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benigànim scores more

26%

level

27%

Elche II scores more

47%

Elche II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff