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Benfica vs Universidade de Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
Preview
10:00
Universidade de Macau
Universidade de Macau
7/19/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 17
Big match
69%
Benfica
model favours
69%16%15%
2–1
likely score
81%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Benfica69%
×Draw16%
Universidade de Macau15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
3.00
Universidade de Macau
1.39

Benfica creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Universidade de Macau
1.54

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Universidade de Macau
2.62

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Universidade de Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
85%
Benfica or Universidade de Macau
84%
Draw or Universidade de Macau
31%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
49%
Universidade de Macau wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
95%
Benfica 2+ goals
79%
Benfica 3+ goals
56%
Universidade de Macau 1+ goals
75%
Universidade de Macau 2+ goals
40%
Universidade de Macau 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
82%
Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.00

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Benfica scores more
69%
level
16%
Universidade de Macau scores more
15%

Benfica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Benfica
LWLDW
Macau
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Benfica host Universidade de Macau

July 19, 2026: Benfica take on Universidade de Macau in Primeira Divisão. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.