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Benfica vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
11/12/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 11Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Benfica46%
×Draw25%
Sporting CP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.61
Sporting CP
1.22

Benfica creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.42
Sporting CP
1.61

allows per match

Benfica
0.83
Sporting CP
0.81

finishing

Benfica+0.36scores more
Sporting CP+0.68scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
71%
Benfica or Sporting CP
75%
Draw or Sporting CP
54%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
24%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
80%
Benfica 2+ goals
48%
Benfica 3+ goals
22%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
70%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
34%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
62%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.42 + Sporting CP defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sporting CP attack 1.61 + Benfica defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Benfica scores more
46%
level
25%
Sporting CP scores more
29%

Benfica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Sporting CP

Benfica beat Sporting CP 2-1 in Primeira Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.