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Benfica vs SC Braga — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica
Benficaadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SC Braga
SC Braga
1/10/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Benfica46%
×Draw22%
SC Braga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.92
SC Braga
1.58

Benfica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.88
SC Braga
2.29

allows per match

Benfica
0.88
SC Braga
0.95

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
SC Braga+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

SC Braga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
68%
Benfica or SC Braga
78%
Draw or SC Braga
54%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
25%
SC Braga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
85%
Benfica 2+ goals
57%
Benfica 3+ goals
30%
SC Braga 1+ goals
79%
SC Braga 2+ goals
47%
SC Braga 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
59%
SC Braga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

SC Braga away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.88 + SC Braga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

SC Braga attack 2.29 + Benfica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Benfica scores more
46%
level
22%
SC Braga scores more
32%

Benfica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs SC Braga

Benfica beat SC Braga 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa.