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Benfica vs FC Porto — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Porto
FC Portoadvanced
Carlos Vinicius 84' (pen)
C. Mbemba 59', 47'
8/1/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · FinalEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Benfica39%
×Draw23%
FC Porto39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.67
FC Porto
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.87
FC Porto
2.54

allows per match

Benfica
0.80
FC Porto
0.46

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
61%
Benfica or FC Porto
77%
Draw or FC Porto
61%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
19%
FC Porto wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
81%
Benfica 2+ goals
50%
Benfica 3+ goals
23%
FC Porto 1+ goals
81%
FC Porto 2+ goals
50%
FC Porto 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
50%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.87 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Benfica defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Benfica scores more
39%
level
23%
FC Porto scores more
39%

Benfica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Chancel MbembaFC PortoFC Porto · D
8.5

Match Events

9'
M. Luis Diaz
12'
R. Dias
38'
M. Luis Diaz
38'
M. Luis Diaz
40'
S.
43'
S.
43'
S.
44'
Jardel
46'
F. Cervi← R. Silva
47'
J. Weigl
47'
C. Mbemba
59'
C. Mbemba↳ Otavio
61'
J. Weigl← Carlos Vinicius
62'
Chiquinho← A. Taarabt
73'
Otavio← D. Leite
75'
Carlos Vinicius
76'
Pizzi← Jota
77'
H. Seferovic← D. Sousa
80'
J. Corona← Sergio Oliveira
84'
Carlos ViniciusPenalty
88'
M. Uribe← M. Ndiaye
90'
A. Telles

Possession

62%Benfica

Shots

12Benfica

Pass accuracy

55%Benfica

Statistics

BenficaFC
Overview
62%Possession38%
12Total Shots6
4Corners6
19Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots6
2On Target4
7Off Target1
3Blocked1
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
458Total Passes283
375Accurate Passes188
82%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls18
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Taça de Portugal: Benfica 1–2 FC Porto

FC Porto beat Benfica 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on August 1, 2020.

Goals: C. Mbemba (47', 59'), Carlos Vinicius (84' pen).

Benfica controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.