Benfica U23 2–0 Torreense U23: Result & Stats

Benfica U23

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Torreense U23

J. Trevisan 37'

O. Tome 6'

5/28/2025

Taça Revelação U23 · FinalCaixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica U2368%

×Draw19%

Torreense U2313%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U23Expected goals in this matchTorreense U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.81

Benfica U23

2.15

Torreense U23

0.81

Benfica U23 creates 165% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.63

creates per match

1.00

0.63

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Benfica U23

2.63

Torreense U23

1.00

allows per match

Benfica U23

0.63

Torreense U23

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U23+0.00on par

Torreense U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U23 ↓

Torreense U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Benfica U23 or draw

87%

Benfica U23 or Torreense U23

81%

Draw or Torreense U23

32%

Winning margin

Benfica U23 wins by 2+

44%

Torreense U23 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica U23 1+ goals

88%

Benfica U23 2+ goals

63%

Benfica U23 3+ goals

36%

Torreense U23 1+ goals

56%

Torreense U23 2+ goals

19%

Torreense U23 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Benfica U23 (draw refunded)

84%

Torreense U23 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U23 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Torreense U23 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U23 attack 2.63 + Torreense U23 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Torreense U23 attack 1.00 + Benfica U23 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Benfica U23 scores more

68%

level

19%

Torreense U23 scores more

13%

Benfica U23 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

O. Tome

37'

J. Trevisan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff