Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benfica B vs Casa Pia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Benfica B
Benfica B
Preview
09:30
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
36%
Benfica B
model favours
36%28%36%

Casa Pia score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica B36%
×Draw28%
Casa Pia36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica B
1.17
Casa Pia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Benfica B
0.67
Casa Pia
1.67

allows per match

Benfica B
0.67
Casa Pia
1.67

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par
Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw
64%
Benfica B or Casa Pia
72%
Draw or Casa Pia
64%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+
15%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals
69%
Benfica B 2+ goals
33%
Benfica B 3+ goals
11%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
69%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
33%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)
50%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 0.67 + Casa Pia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Casa Pia attack 1.67 + Benfica B defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Benfica B scores more
36%
level
28%
Casa Pia scores more
36%

Benfica B at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Casa Pia win just 24% of their away games
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
B
DDDDL
Pia
WWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica B face Casa Pia (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Benfica B hosting Casa Pia. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.