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Belluno vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Belluno
Belluno
PST
13:30
Adriese
Adriese
3/25/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 30Stadio Comunale Polisportivo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Belluno36%
×Draw27%
Adriese36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belluno
1.25
Adriese
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 101 away

creates per match

Belluno
1.15
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Belluno
1.15
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Belluno+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belluno ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Belluno or draw
64%
Belluno or Adriese
73%
Draw or Adriese
64%

Winning margin

Belluno wins by 2+
16%
Adriese wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belluno 1+ goals
71%
Belluno 2+ goals
36%
Belluno 3+ goals
13%
Adriese 1+ goals
71%
Adriese 2+ goals
36%
Adriese 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Belluno (draw refunded)
50%
Adriese (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belluno at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belluno attack 1.15 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Adriese attack 1.36 + Belluno defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Belluno scores more
36%
level
27%
Adriese scores more
36%

Belluno at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Belluno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belluno vs Adriese — Match Preview

Belluno face Adriese on March 25, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Belluno host Adriese at Stadio Comunale Polisportivo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.