Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Belgium W vs Poland W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Belgium W
Belgium W
Preview
13:00
Poland W
Poland W
10/7/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Big match
90%
Belgium W
model favours
90%8%2%

Belgium W are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
28%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belgium W90%
×Draw8%
Poland W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium W
3.17
Poland W
0.34

Belgium W creates 832% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Belgium W
3.67
Poland W
0.67

allows per match

Belgium W
0.00
Poland W
2.67

finishing

Belgium W+0.00on par
Poland W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium W ↓

Poland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (17%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Belgium W or draw
98%
Belgium W or Poland W
92%
Draw or Poland W
10%

Winning margin

Belgium W wins by 2+
74%
Poland W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Belgium W 1+ goals
96%
Belgium W 2+ goals
82%
Belgium W 3+ goals
60%
Poland W 1+ goals
29%
Poland W 2+ goals
5%
Poland W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Belgium W (draw refunded)
98%
Poland W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Poland W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium W attack 3.67 + Poland W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

Poland W attack 0.67 + Belgium W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Belgium W scores more
90%
level
8%
Poland W scores more
2%

Belgium W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Belgium W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Belgium W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Belgium W 2 vs Poland W 4
  • 20% of Belgium W’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Belgium W and Poland W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WWDDW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Belgium W host Poland W

October 7, 2026: Belgium W take on Poland W in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.