Belchite 97 3–3 Caspe: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Caspe

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Belchite 9737%

×Draw30%

Caspe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchCaspe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.99

Belchite 97

1.06

Caspe

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 83 away

1.01

creates per match

0.89

1.09

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

Caspe

0.89

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

Caspe

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Caspe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

67%

Belchite 97 or Caspe

70%

Draw or Caspe

63%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

14%

Caspe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

65%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

29%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

9%

Caspe 1+ goals

63%

Caspe 2+ goals

26%

Caspe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

53%

Caspe (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Caspe attack 0.89 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

37%

level

30%

Caspe scores more

33%

Belchite 97 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff