Belchite 97 3–1 Brea: Result & Stats

Belchite 97

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brea

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7Campo de Futbol Municipal de Belchite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Belchite 9735%

×Draw31%

Brea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belchite 97Expected goals in this matchBrea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.00

Belchite 97

1.02

Brea

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 46 away

1.01

creates per match

0.91

1.09

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Belchite 97

1.01

Brea

0.91

allows per match

Belchite 97

1.09

Brea

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belchite 97 ↓

Brea →

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belchite 97 or draw

66%

Belchite 97 or Brea

69%

Draw or Brea

65%

Winning margin

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

13%

Brea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Belchite 97 1+ goals

64%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

27%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

Brea 1+ goals

63%

Brea 2+ goals

26%

Brea 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

51%

Brea (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Belchite 97 at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Belchite 97 attack 1.01 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Brea attack 0.91 + Belchite 97 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Belchite 97 scores more

35%

level

31%

Brea scores more

34%

Belchite 97 at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Belchite 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff