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Belasitsa vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
11/3/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Belasitsa49%
×Draw27%
Spartak Pleven24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
1.40
Spartak Pleven
0.90

Belasitsa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 80 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
1.30
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Belasitsa
1.01
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
76%
Belasitsa or Spartak Pleven
73%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
51%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
75%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
41%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
59%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
23%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
67%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.01 · 69 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 1.30 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Belasitsa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Belasitsa scores more
49%
level
27%
Spartak Pleven scores more
24%

Belasitsa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belasitsa vs Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven beat Belasitsa 2-0 in Second League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.