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Belasica vs Osogovo — Second League 2019

Belasica
Belasica
FT
1 – 1
Osogovo
Osogovo
3/17/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Belasica55%
×Draw24%
Osogovo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasica
1.70
Osogovo
0.95

Belasica creates 79% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 66 away

creates per match

Belasica
1.54
Osogovo
1.02

allows per match

Belasica
0.87
Osogovo
1.86

finishing

Belasica+0.00on par
Osogovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasica ↓

Osogovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Belasica or draw
79%
Belasica or Osogovo
76%
Draw or Osogovo
45%

Winning margin

Belasica wins by 2+
30%
Osogovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Belasica 1+ goals
82%
Belasica 2+ goals
51%
Belasica 3+ goals
24%
Osogovo 1+ goals
61%
Osogovo 2+ goals
25%
Osogovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Belasica (draw refunded)
72%
Osogovo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Osogovo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasica attack 1.54 + Osogovo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.70

Osogovo attack 1.02 + Belasica defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Belasica scores more
55%
level
24%
Osogovo scores more
21%

Belasica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belasica vs Osogovo

Belasica and Osogovo drew 1-1 in Second League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.