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Belarus vs Albania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Belarus
Belarus
Preview
17:00
Albania
Albania
11/15/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 6
Big match
44%
Belarus
model favours
44%34%22%

Top-of-the-table clash — Belarus 3 vs Albania 4

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
78%
under 2.5 goals
29%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Belarus44%
×Draw34%
Albania22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belarus
1.01
Albania
0.61

Belarus creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Belarus
0.91
Albania
0.78

allows per match

Belarus
0.45
Albania
1.11

finishing

Belarus+0.00on par
Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus ↓

Albania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Belarus or draw
78%
Belarus or Albania
66%
Draw or Albania
56%

Winning margin

Belarus wins by 2+
17%
Albania wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Belarus 1+ goals
64%
Belarus 2+ goals
27%
Belarus 3+ goals
8%
Albania 1+ goals
46%
Albania 2+ goals
13%
Albania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Belarus (draw refunded)
67%
Albania (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Albania away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus attack 0.91 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Albania attack 0.78 + Belarus defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belarus scores more
44%
level
34%
Albania scores more
22%

Belarus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Belarus
Direct / counter-attacking
Albania
Balanced
43%PossessionBiggest gap51%
73%Pass accuracy81%
10.1Shots11.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BelarusAlbania

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Belarus
DWWWL
Albania
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belarus vs Albania — Match Preview

Belarus face Albania on November 15, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.