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Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
4/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Beijing Guoan44%
×Draw23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.75
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.50

Beijing Guoan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 68 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
67%
Beijing Guoan or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
77%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
56%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
52%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
78%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
44%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
57%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
44%
level
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
33%

Beijing Guoan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC drew 2-2 in Super League on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.