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Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
8/14/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Beijing Guoan58%
×Draw21%
Dalian Aerbin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.05
Dalian Aerbin
1.13

Beijing Guoan creates 81% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 84 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
80%
Beijing Guoan or Dalian Aerbin
79%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
42%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
35%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
87%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
61%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
33%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
68%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
31%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
74%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
58%
level
21%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
20%

Beijing Guoan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin

Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Aerbin 5-2 in Super League on August 14, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.