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Beijing Baxy vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
4/8/2018League OneLeague One · Round 5Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Beijing Baxy58%
×Draw23%
Xinjiang Tianshan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.77
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.89

Beijing Baxy creates 99% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
81%
Beijing Baxy or Xinjiang Tianshan
77%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
42%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
33%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
53%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
26%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
59%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
22%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
76%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
58%
level
23%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
19%

Beijing Baxy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Beijing Baxy beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing).