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Beerschot VA vs AS Eupen — League #145 2026

Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
Preview
19:00
AS Eupen
AS Eupen
1/23/2027League #145League #145
Big match
56%
Beerschot VA
model favours
56%23%21%

Beerschot VA have scored in 13 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beerschot VA56%
×Draw23%
AS Eupen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beerschot VA
1.78
AS Eupen
0.98

Beerschot VA creates 82% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Beerschot VA
2.25
AS Eupen
1.46

allows per match

Beerschot VA
0.50
AS Eupen
1.31

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par
AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

AS Eupen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw
79%
Beerschot VA or AS Eupen
77%
Draw or AS Eupen
44%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+
32%
AS Eupen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals
83%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
53%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
26%
AS Eupen 1+ goals
62%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
26%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
73%
AS Eupen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 2.25 + AS Eupen defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

AS Eupen attack 1.46 + Beerschot VA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beerschot VA scores more
56%
level
23%
AS Eupen scores more
21%

Beerschot VA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Beerschot VA score first in only 23% of matches
  • When AS Eupen score first, they win 80% of the time
  • 69% of Beerschot VA’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
VA
WLL
Eupen
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beerschot VA face AS Eupen (League #145)

League #145 returns with Beerschot VA hosting AS Eupen. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.