Bechem United 1–1 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Bechem United

FT

1 – 1

King Faisal

M. Salifu 45+2'

K. Preprah 48' (pen)

1/10/2021

Premier League · Round 8Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bechem United61%

×Draw26%

King Faisal14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bechem UnitedExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.56

Bechem United

1.52

King Faisal

0.56

Bechem United creates 171% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 58 away

1.36

creates per match

0.72

0.41

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bechem United

1.36

King Faisal

0.72

allows per match

Bechem United

0.41

King Faisal

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw

86%

Bechem United or King Faisal

74%

Draw or King Faisal

39%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+

32%

King Faisal wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals

78%

Bechem United 2+ goals

45%

Bechem United 3+ goals

20%

King Faisal 1+ goals

43%

King Faisal 2+ goals

11%

King Faisal 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)

82%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bechem United scores more

61%

level

26%

King Faisal scores more

14%

Bechem United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

F. Twene

45+2'

M. Salifu

46'

K. Preprah← K. Preprah

48'

K. PreprahPenalty

59'

C. Mensah← C. Mensah

60'

Prince Otubua← Prince Otubua

80'

M. Boahene← M. Boahene

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff