Bechem United 0–0 Bibiani Gold Stars

Bechem United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bibiani Gold Stars

11/27/2023

Premier League · Round 12Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bechem United59%

×Draw27%

Bibiani Gold Stars14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bechem UnitedExpected goals in this matchBibiani Gold Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.55

Bechem United

1.43

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.55

Bechem United creates 160% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 84 away

1.36

creates per match

0.70

0.41

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bechem United

1.36

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.70

allows per match

Bechem United

0.41

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw

86%

Bechem United or Bibiani Gold Stars

73%

Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars

41%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+

30%

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals

76%

Bechem United 2+ goals

42%

Bechem United 3+ goals

17%

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

42%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

11%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)

80%

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bechem United scores more

59%

level

27%

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

14%

Bechem United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff